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Module I: Secrets Of the COT Explained (2 parts, running time: 92min)
Part 1 – “Secrets of the COT Explained” (53:29)
In this introductory section we lay the foundation for the course content and weekly subscription data, explain key concepts pertaining to the Futures market, and review each of the three types of market participants tracked by COT data – Commercials (“Hedgers”), Large Speculators (“Professional Trend Followers”) and Small Speculators (“The Herd”). Learn what a Futures contract is and how it’s traded, key differences between Futures and Forex, and how and why the COT data is so important to trading success.
- Welcome Message
- What Makes Our Service Different?
- Why Are We Doing This?
- What Should You Expect to get Out of This?
- What Not to Expect
- Coming Your Way (A Brief Rundown)
- What Exactly Is the COT Report?
- Where Does COT Data Come From?
- So Why Should I Care About COT?
- What is a Futures Contract?
- What Does it Mean to Go Long or Short in Futures?
- Key Differences: Futures vs. Forex
- Meet the Players, part 1 – The Commercials
- Meet the Players, part 2 – Large Spec Traders
- Meet the Players, part 3 – Small Spec Traders
Part 2 – “Secrets of the COT Explained” (38:49)
Section 2 let’s you in on a COT secret…ten of them in fact! All the most important “behind the scenes” principles and secrets most other resources don’t (or won’t) fill you in on. Learn about the important price linkage between Futures and Forex markets, how and why volume flows in the Futures world effect price action, the fallacies surrounding conventional interpretation of market “Open Interest”, how and why Commercial traders transact in such contrarian fashion over long periods of time…and lots more!
- Secret #1 – The Futures Market Leads the Spot Market
- Futures and Spot Markets: The Link
- What Studies Have Shown
- Secret #2 – COT Ultimately Boils Down to One Main Idea…VOLUME FLOWS
- COT Basic Metrics of Interest
- Secret #3 – It is Extremely Import to Assess Price in Relation to COT Volume Flows
- Secret #4 – There is Always Perfect Equivalence in Positions Held in the Futures Market
- Futures Market Flows are Always Symmetrical
- Secret #5 – Small Spec Traders Account for Relatively Limited Share of Market so We Don’t Need to Track Them Separately
- Futures Volume Significant by Segment
- Secret #6 – Commercial Traders Buy and Sell Very Differently from You and Me
- 2007 – Commercial Traders SHORT in a Rising Market for Pound Sterling
- A Quick Lesson in Merchandising Market Dynamics
- Secret #7 – Traditional Beliefs about Open Interest are Mostly Wrong
- How Open Interest Really Works
- Secret #8 – We Don’t Necessarily Want to Go Long/Short Forex Just Because the Big Dogs are Long/Short in Futures
- Secret #9 – Contrary to Popular Opinion, We Don’t Always Seek to do the Exact Opposite of the Small & Spec Traders
- Secret #10 – When it Comes to COT Data, it is Extremes That Are of Most Interest to Us
- How We Capture Extremes
- 30-Second glossary: A few Important Terms
Module II: A Guided Tour Of the Forexmentor COT Report
(3 parts, running time: 181 min)
Part 1 – “A Guided Tour of the Forexmentor COT Report” (57:03)
Our first of three segments introducing the weekly reporting package provides you a detailed compendium of all the indicator readings and events that are of interest to us. In a nutshell, how to read the nine custom COT charts we’ve created for you. We review a never-before-shown schematic on the four types of divergence signals effecting the important metrics of Open Interest and Net Positions, then explain index crossovers, and the importance of reading the various indicator events in relation to trend.
- The Whole Shebang…In a Nutshell
- The Whole Shebang, part 2
- The Whole Shebang, part 3
- Four Modes of Analysis
- What We’re Looking for…Who’s Controlling Open Interest?
- Open Interest Divergence Schematic
- Divergence, Divergence, Divergence!
- Why Divergence is of Interest to Us
- Another Angle: Index Crossovers
- Note to Self: Always Read COT Divergences in Relation to Trend
Part 2 – “A Guided Tour of the Forexmentor COT Report”(1:08)
Time to roll up our shirtsleeves and study our custom COT charts #1 through #9 in detail. This is the section you go to gain an in-depth understanding of what each of the charts tracks, why it’s important, and how to use the information in a practical way to plan and execute high-probability trades that make money. Each of the nine sample charts is supplemented with mini case studies – references to actual signals plotted on the Daily chart for various markets showing the impact the various indicator signals foretold in terms of price action. And a special treat – your introduction to the “Gravity Index”, a powerful, proprietary price divergence indicator we developed exclusively for this resource, available nowhere else.
- How to Read Chart #1 – Long Positions vs. Open Interest
- How to Read Chart #2 – Short Positions vs. Open Interest
- How to Read Chart #3 – Net Positions vs. Open Interest
- How to Read Chart #4 – Commercials Net vs. Open Interest
- How to Read Chart #5 – Commercials Net vs. S&S Net
- How to Read Chart #6 – Commercials Net vs. Price
- How to Read Chart #7 – Commercials Net vs. Net USD
- So What the Heck is a Gravity Index?
- How to Read Chart #8 – Futures Price vs. Gravity Index
- How to Read Chart #9 – Daily Spot Price vs. Gravity Index
- A Dose of Reality: Does COT Really Work All the Time?
Part 3 – “A Guided Tour of the Forexmentor COT Report” (56:06)
Module II concludes with an introduction to the lineup and configuration of charts we use to draw the linkage between Futures market flows and price action in the Spot Markets, including Forex. A brief reference to Elliott Wave concepts and in particular how we use them to “filter” and time COT divergences, supplemental technicals (such as Trend Channels) and an overview of the information processing model that guides our response to COT rounds out this informative section.
- A Quick Note on Index Instruments
- Spot Market Chart Lineup
- Indicators & Studies We’re Using on the Forex Charts
- Elliott Wave…Where to Start
- Your 30-Second Primer on How to Draw and Use Trend Channels
- Data, Data Everywhere…What to Do With It?
- What Not to Do With It
- How to Read the Weekly Flash
- Weekly Schedule of Events
- Service Disruption Policy
- Our Long-term Vision for This Service
- Risk Disclosure Statement
Module III – Case Study: COT Signals and the November 2007 Collapse of GBP/USD (2 parts, running time: 73min)
Part 1 – COT Signals and the November 2007 Collapse of GBP/USD” (30:34)
In the first week of November, 2007 the British Pound commenced an absolutely stunning (and for many people – unexpected) collapse against the greenback that wiped out much of the gains it had made past the 1.9300 mark all the way to its yearly high above 2.1100 – over 1800 pips from start to finish. For those of with an eye on COT this collapse was completely predictable, as clear bearish divergence signals had materialized just four days before the start of the collapse. In this section we review the COT chart signals as they actually appeared at the live edge of trading, and pick them apart to see how they would’ve prepared us for a short position trade that was simply too good to pass up.
Part 2 – COT Signals and the November 2007 Collapse of GBP/USD” (43:22)
Module III concludes with a clear and explicit linkage drawn between divergence metrics on the COT custom charts and price structure (including Elliott Wave concepts) on the various Forex spot market charts, and shows how application of the pyramid concept (adding to an open position at strategic junctures) could’ve magnified the available profit potential from this exciting run. The focus on this section is to explain how we would’ve put the information all together to create a coherent and focused trading plan.
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